Extended Forecast | Significant/Hazardous Weather | Recreational Forecast | Detailed Discussion | Farm & Garden | Wind by Elevation | Temperature by Elevation
Detailed Forecast
Wednesday Night:
Partly cloudy. Chance of an early shower or thunderstorm near the international border, slight chance south to around Route 4. Areas of valley fog overnight. Lows from the mid 50s to lower 60s. West to northwest winds around 5 mph early, becoming light and variable.
Thursday:
Some early fog, then partly to mostly cloudy. Chance of an afternoon shower near the Massachusetts border, slight chance north to Route 4. Highs from the mid 70s to around 80. Winds variable to west at around 5 mph.
Thursday Night:
Chance of an evening shower near and south of Route 4, otherwise becoming mostly clear and cooler. Areas of valley fog. Lows in the upper 40s and 50s. Winds becoming light and variable.
Extended Forecast
Friday:
Morning valley fog burning off; then mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Winds remaining light and variable.
Friday Night:
Mostly clear, with some increasing clouds south late. Lows from the upper 40s to mid 50s.
Saturday:
Any fog burns off; then sun giving way to increasing clouds from south to north. Chance of afternoon showers in southern New Hampshire. Highs from the mid 70s to around 80, except upper 60s to mid 70s from Route 4 southward, and in New Hampshire.
Saturday Night:
Becoming mostly cloudy, with a chance of showers, mainly in New York. Lows in the 50s, closer to 60 west and south.
Sunday:
Chance of showers in the morning, a rising chance in the afternoon. Highs from the mid 70s to around 80.
Significant/Hazardous Weather
None.
Recreational Forecast
Mountain Forecast:
Across the summits today, expect morning sunshine, giving way to increasing and lowering clouds, as showers and thunderstorms develop in the Adirondacks, just scattered through the northern Green and White Mountains this afternoon, and isolated south. Light south winds becoming moderate from the southwest, and little change in temperatures. Thursday features periods of clouds, thicker to the south, with a few showers in the Berkshires into the southern Green Mountains. Light winds, briefly southerly south, and west across the Presidential Range, while temperatures cool just a few degrees. The look ahead to Friday calls for lots of sunshine, light northwest winds, and temperatures warming a few degrees.
Wind At Lower Elevations:
Winds today light, mainly south to southwest 5 to 15 mph from the Green Mountains west, with waves on the open waters of Lake Champlain up to 1 foot. Tonight, winds west 5 to 10 mph, diminishing to light and variable, with waves on the open waters of Lake Champlain 1 foot or less. On Thursday, winds light, with waves on the open waters of Lake Champlain less than 1 foot. The outlook for Friday calls for light, variable winds.
***winds and waves may be higher in the vicinity of thunderstorms***
For more details on Lake Champlain, go to: http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BTV&product=REC&issuedby=BTV
Detailed Discussion
Yesterday went about it weather business rather quietly – it was sunny, seasonably warm, a bit less humidity, and light winds – it basically checked all the boxes in terms of pleasant summer weather. So it’s not surprising that this morning has followed suit, with a quiet start to the day, a few degrees cooler than the past few morning, but not exceptionally so, with fog settled into its typical haunts through the river valleys – otherwise mainly clear. This is where we start to find some differences. Some clouds have been edging into northern areas, especially through the St. Lawrence Valley, part of an approaching cold front that will spread showers, and perhaps a stray thunderstorm into the St. Lawrence Valley this morning, mostly lifting northeast through Quebec this afternoon, while localized showers and storms are scattered through northern areas from the Adirondacks and about Rt. 4 north into the White Mountains late in the day or this evening. More sunshine is expected south, with only a stray shower possible, but not likely. The front doesn’t have a strong urge to push through, leaving us with a relatively mild night, and only some partial clearing through northern areas, remaining partly cloudy in southern locations. By tomorrow, the front will sag to our south, while a minor system tracks east along the front. This bears watching, especially in southern areas, and we’ve introduced at least the chance of a few showers near and south of the MA border tomorrow afternoon and evening. This depends both on the position of the front, and how much shower activity the minor system can stir up. Recently, the showers have been more productive well to our south, limiting the moisture that reaches us. Northern areas will see some periods of clouds, but it appears it should stay dry from at least the Adirondacks and Rt. 4 north. Finally, high pressure arrives Thursday night into Friday, with cooler, drier air. Skies should clear Thursday night, perhaps leading to some typical river valley fog, then burning off to plenty of sunshine on Friday, and seasonable temperatures, in the 70s north to near 80 in the south. The high drifts to our east Friday night, still close enough for a generally clear, cool night. By Saturday though, the high exits to the northeast, and the same cold front moving to our south tomorrow becomes part of the conversation as we head into the weekend. While Saturday looks just fine for outdoor plans, the exiting high means the front begins to lift back to the north, so the sun will be giving way to increasing clouds from south to north. The front gets a boost from low pressure developing through the Great Lakes to our west, increasing the southerly airflow over us, drawing additional moisture north. This leads to a rising chance of showers through NY from the storm to the west, and in southern areas as the front begins to lift back north. Those showers continue to increase as they gradually spread northeast on Sunday, suggesting that the second half of the weekend may turn increasingly damp.
Farm & Garden
Rainfall Forecast:
Showers becoming likely through the St. Lawrence Valley and Quebec, covering 80 percent of the area, with 0.10 to 0.25 inches, decreasing to scattered from the Adirondacks and north of Rt. 4, covering 40 percent of the area, with amounts near 0.10 inches. Mainly dry through areas south of the Adirondacks and Rt. 4. Generally dry Thursday, except for a chance of showers from Rt. 9 south, covering 30 percent of the area, up to 50 percent in MA, with amounts of 0.10 inches or less. That ends Thursday evening, with no rain Friday through Saturday. Rain becoming likely Sunday, with light to possibly moderate amounts through Monday morning.
Drying Conditions:
Drying conditions today remaining good south, becoming fair to locally poor in northern areas as showers spread east. Minimum relative humidities from near 45 percent south to 65 percent north. Good drying conditions return Thursday, with minimum relative humidities near 40 percent, except fair from Rt. 9 south, with a few showers possible, and minimum relative humidities near 55 percent. Drying improving to good to excellent Friday and Saturday, after any morning dew and fog gives way to sunshine and minimum relative humidities near 40 percent. Drying becoming poor Sunday as showers increase from southwest to northeast.
Frost:
No frost for the foreseeable future.
Wind by Elevation
| Elevation | Today | Thursday | Friday |
| 2000ft | SW 5>15 mph | light>SE 15 mph | N 10 mph>light |
| 4000ft | SW 5>W 20 mph | light/variable | N 10>NW 5 mph |
| 6000ft | SW 15>W 50 mph | W 10 to 25 mph | NW 15>5 mph |
Temperature by Elevation
| Elevation | Today | Thursday | Friday |
| 2000ft | 70 N/80 S | 70 N/77 S | 70 N/79 S |
| 4000ft | 65 to 70 | 60s | 60 to 65 |
| 6000ft | 50 to 55 | 40s | 45 to 50 |