Weather Forecast

Extended Forecast  |  Significant/Hazardous Weather  |  Recreational Forecast  |  Detailed Discussion  |  Farm & Garden  |  Wind by Elevation  |  Temperature by Elevation

Detailed Forecast

Tonight:
A few localized showers ending. Gradual clearing overnight, with valley fog forming. Lows in the low to mid 40s, near 50 along Lake Champlain. Light and variable wind.

Saturday:
Morning fog burning off to sunshine, mixing with clouds from the west in the afternoon. Warmer. Highs in the low to mid 70s, some 80s in the warmest valleys. Wind turning southwest at 10 to 15 mph, gusting 20 to 25 mph in the northwest.

Saturday Night:
Periods of clouds, mild, with a chance of localized passing showers. Lows in the low to mid 50s. Southwest wind near 10, gusting to 20 mph through the Champlain Valley and over the higher terrain.

Extended Forecast

Sunday:
Partly cloudy in the morning, becoming mostly sunny. Highs from near 70 north, into the upper 70s as you head south, 80s in the warmest valleys. Winds becoming northwest near 10 mph.

Sunday Night:
Mostly clear, with some passing clouds. Lows through the 40s, nearing 50 in the Champlain Valley.

Monday:
Sun, mixing with clouds. Seasonably warm. Highs from the mid 70s to near 80 in the northeast, from the upper 70s to mid 80s south and west.

Monday Night:
Partly cloudy and mild. Chance of a stray shower in the Saint Lawrence Valley. Lows in the 50s to low 60s.

Tuesday:
Partly sunny and hot. A chance of afternoon showers, and isolated thunder. Highs in the 80s, with warmer valleys in the south approaching 90.

Tuesday Night:
Partly cloudy south, mostly cloudy north. Increasing chance of rain showers, and stray thunderstorms. Warm. Lows in the 60s.

Wednesday:
Widespread rain showers, with a chance of embedded thunderstorms. Highs from the upper 70s north into the low to mid 80s.

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Significant/Hazardous Weather

Warm air temperatures this weekend may make it feel safe to head out on the water, but lake and river temperatures remain dangerously cold, mainly in the 40s and 50s. Anyone who falls into the water could quickly experience cold shock or hypothermia. Gusty south winds of 20 to 30 mph may also create rough conditions on larger bodies of water, increasing the risk of capsizing. In addition, recent rainfall has left rivers running fast with strong currents, so use extra caution and always wear a life jacket if recreating on the water this weekend.

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Recreational Forecast

Mountain Forecast:
The summits will start with clouds and rain obscuring the northern summits. Showers and and clouds lifting and breaking in the Adirondacks, Berkshires and Green Mountains, where a little afternoon sun is possible. Clouds will be lower, and showers more likely in the White Mountains. Moderate east to northeast winds will decrease, while temperatures remain about the same. Saturday calls for sun, mixing with afternoon clouds. Moderate west winds becoming southwest winds, while temperatures warm several degrees. The outlook for Sunday finds variable clouds and sun, the clouds briefly on the summits early, then increasing periods of sun Sunday afternoon, though a stray shower can’t be ruled out. With winds increasing to moderate from the northwest on Sunday, strong across the Presidential Range, temperatures might run just a few degrees cooler.

Wind At Lower Elevations:
Winds today north, becoming northeast near 10 mph, with waves on the open waters of Lake Champlain 1 to 2 feet. Tonight, winds mainly light, becoming south to southwest less than 10 mph, with waves on the open waters of Lake Champlain 1 to 2 feet. On Saturday, winds becoming west to southwest near 10 mph, more southerly in the Champlain Valley, gusting to 20 to 30 mph, with waves on the open waters of Lake Champlain building to 1 to 3 feet. The outlook for Sunday calls for winds becoming northwest 10 to 15 mph, a few gusts to 25 mph.

For more details on Lake Champlain, go to: https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BTV&product=REC&issuedby=BTV

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Detailed Discussion

Yesterday’s soggy weather, focused from the Green Mountains east through mid-afternoon, pivoted west late yesterday as the circulation from a storm in the upper atmosphere rotated to our south, creating an easterly flow off the Atlantic for several hours. What’s left of that circulation is decaying over the region, seen as a channel of rain and showers arcing from the mid-coast of Maine, northwest into the White Mountains and Eastern Townships, then across Quebec and northern VT, curving south into the Adirondacks. As the upper level system moves east, this rain decays, and by later this morning the clouds will be thinning from northern NH and VT west and north, leading to increasing periods of sun, taking longer through central and southern NH. The heating of the sun could trigger a few random showers popping up this afternoon, while the sun warms temperatures a bit, between 60 and 65, except for some upper 50s, with more clouds east of the Green Mountains. Clearing develops tonight, and with the recent rain and light winds, some areas of valley fog may form, but they’ll burn off quickly, while we see a noticeable shift in the weather as we look ahead to the weekend. Rather than a dominant northwest flow from Canada, a much warmer west and southwest airflow sends readings into the upper 60s and 70s Saturday, and we’ll enjoy a generous supply of sunshine through early afternoon, thanks to high pressure in the Ohio Valley today, sliding to our south and off the East Coast tomorrow. This does make room for a minor front to swing by Saturday night into early Sunday, most of its energy remaining to our north. The limited energy and moisture will cause clouds to increase from the west later tomorrow afternoon, but only support a few stray, isolated showers Saturday night from the Adirondacks and Rt. 2 north, before more sunshine returns for Sunday, perhaps just a few degrees cooler for northern areas, ranging from the upper 60s to upper 70s north to south. It continues to warm up next week, with 70s to low 80s Monday, and well into the 80s Tuesday, a few warmer valleys south might attempt to reach 90. A weakening cold front approaches later Tuesday, but the timing this far in advance has a lot of variance, so we’ll keep an eye on it, and introduce the chance of showers in western and northern areas Tuesday afternoon. We’ll gather information on this system through the weekend, and refine our forecast early next week.

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Farm & Garden

Rainfall Forecast:
A chance of showers south of the Adirondacks and Rt. 2, mainly this morning, covering 40 percent of the area, increasing to 50 in southern NH, with amounts of 0.10 inches or less. Showers likely through NY, and from Rt. 2 in VT, the White Mountains in NH, north into Quebec, tapering off late morning and afternoon, covering 70 percent of the region, with an additional 0.10 inches, up to 0.25 inches in NH. Mainly dry weather anticipated for Saturday, except late Saturday afternoon and Saturday night, localized, passing showers from the Adirondacks and Rt. 2 north will cover 30 percent of the area, with amounts of 0.10 inches or less. Dry weather returns Sunday through Monday. A chance of scattered showers Tuesday, possibly increasing to likely from the Adirondacks and Rt. 2 north later in the day.

Drying Conditions:
Fair to poor drying north, where morning showers are likely through the Adirondacks, Rt. 2 and Lakes Region of NH north. Scattered showers decreasing south, with fair drying conditions. A localized afternoon shower all areas, with minimum relative humidities dropping to 60 percent north, and 50 percent south. Drying conditions improve to good to excellent Saturday, with minimum relative humidities near 30 percent. A late day shower Saturday, and widely scattered Saturday night from the Adirondacks and Rt. 2 north, with minimum relative humidities near 40 percent. Good to excellent drying conditions Sunday, with minimum relative humidities near 35 percent. Good to excellent drying Monday, then good south Tuesday, becoming fair to good north with a chance of showers.

Frost:
Milder weather through this weekend into next week keeps us frost-free for the next several days.

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Wind by Elevation

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Temperature by Elevation

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