Weather Forecast

Extended Forecast  |  Significant/Hazardous Weather  |  Recreational Forecast  |  Detailed Discussion  |  Farm & Garden  |  Wind by Elevation  |  Temperature by Elevation

Detailed Forecast

Tonight:
A few stray evening showers, then periods of clouds in the northern mountains, with clearing in the Champlain and St. Lawrence Valleys, and south. Blustery and colder. Lows in the 30s, near 30 over the higher terrain north. Winds northwest 10 to 20 mph, gusting 25 to 35 mph.

Tuesday:
Mostly sunny, except morning clouds through the northern mountains giving way to increasing afternoon sun. Breezy and chilly. Highs only in the upper 40s to low 50s north, in the 50s south. Winds northwest 10 to 15 mph, gusting 25 to 35 mph.

Tuesday Night:
Mostly clear, with some high clouds late through Quebec into the Adirondacks and north of Rt. 2. Patchy valley fog. Areas of frost and freezing temperatures. Lows in the 30s, some 20s in the cold spots. Winds northwest 10 to 15 mph, becoming light in sheltered valleys.

Wednesday:
Partly sunny north, and sun mixing with clouds south. A chance of a few showers in the St. Lawrence Valley. Highs 60 to 65, mid 60s in the Champlain and southern valleys. Winds light, becoming south near 10 mph east, 10 to 15 mph, gusting to 25 mph from the Green Mountains west.

Extended Forecast

Wednesday Night:
Partly cloudy south of the Adirondacks and Rt. 2. Periods of clouds north, with a chance of scattered showers through Quebec, south into northern border counties. Not as cool. Lows in the 40s.

Thursday:
A mix of sun and clouds south. Periods of clouds north, with a chance of scattered showers from Quebec, south into the Adirondacks and to Rt. 2. Highs 60 to 65.

Thursday Night:
Any localized evening showers north retreating to the mountains. Partly cloudy. Lows in the 30s to near 40 north, 40 to 45 in the Champlain Valley and south.

Friday:
Variable clouds and sun, more clouds in the north and mountains. Highs in the 50s to near 60 north, 60 to 65 south.

Friday Night:
Any localized evening showers north retreating to the mountains. Partly cloudy. Lows in the 30s to near 40 north, 40 to 45 in the Champlain Valley and south.

Saturday:
Variable clouds and sun, more clouds in the north and mountains. Highs from 50 to 60 north to south.

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Significant/Hazardous Weather

The coldest air of the season has arrived, with some freezing temperatures over the higher terrain possible tonight, then widespread freezing temperatures and scattered frost Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

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Recreational Forecast

Mountain Forecast:
For today, the northern summits will start obscured in clouds and showers, with southern summits in and out of the clouds, a local shower, then cloud bases slowly lifting in the afternoon, with a few showers north. Lowering in the afternoon, with an increasing chance of showers. Moderate west to northwest winds, and temperatures steady or falling. On Tuesday, the northern Green and White Mountains will be in and out of the clouds to start, lifting and breaking in the afternoon, while plenty of sunshine is expected through the Adirondacks and southern mountains. Moderate northwest winds, and temperatures moderating a few degrees. The outlook for Wednesday calls for sunshine south, mixed with clouds north, and a chance of a shower in the Adirondacks toward sunset. Moderate southwest winds increasing during the afternoon, and temperatures warming several degrees.

Wind At Lower Elevations:
***A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT***
Winds today becoming west to northwest 10 to 15 mph, gusting 30 to 40 mph, with waves on the open waters of Lake Champlain 1 to 3 feet, building to 2 to 5 feet. Tonight, northwest winds 10 to 15 mph, gusting 25 to 35 mph, with waves on the open waters of Lake Champlain 2 to 4 feet. On Tuesday, northwest winds 10 to 15 mph, gusting 20 to 30 mph, with waves on the open waters of Lake Champlain 1 to 3 feet. The outlook for Wednesday calls for light winds, turning to the south less than 10 mph east, increasing to 10 to 15 mph, gusting to 25 mph from the Green Mountains west.

For more details on Lake Champlain, go to: http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BTV&product=REC&issuedby=BTV

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Detailed Discussion

Saturday featured lots of sunshine for the first weekend in October, with a chilly bubble of high pressure over the Great Lakes building east, resulting in a clear, somewhat frosty night Saturday morning, along with dense valley fog that burned off to some sunshine yesterday. Clouds mixed in at times during the afternoon, along with a mild southerly wind, part of a cold front approaching last night, and ready to move east this morning, stretching from low pressure, just east of James Bay in northwest Quebec, dropping south close to Montreal to start the day, and losing its identity in the Hudson Valley. The front is accompanied by a band of showers pressing east through northern areas this morning, but with the parent low pressure system so far to the north, and high pressure nosing east through the Ohio Valley, there’s not much moisture for any action in southern areas, other than some periods of clouds, and a stray shower over the southern Green Mountains. Also attached to the storm is a second boundary of even colder air extending south into the Great Lakes. This could squeeze out a few more showers north this afternoon, more so over the elevated terrain, and then retreating to the mountains tonight. The storm to our north tracks east through northern Quebec and intensifies, cranking up gusty northwest winds, sending leaves flying, driving waves up to 5 feet on Lake Champlain, and steering the chilliest air of the season so far into the region, holding readings in the mid 50s to mid 60s north to south today, then dropping to the 30s tonight. While there might be some localized frost, this particular episode of cold will include more clouds and more breezes, which will argue against both frost and fog from forming. That doesn’t mean it won’t drop to near or below freezing, so it could be a situation where sensitive plants could be damaged without any visible frost. Tomorrow finds high pressure building east through PA, and sliding to our south tomorrow night into Wednesday. Again, it will permit a little breeze to linger, but it will be lighter, and temperatures will be colder tomorrow night, setting us up for a chilly night of scattered frost and freezing temperatures, least likely near Lake Champlain. With the high continuing east Wednesday, heading into the Atlantic, another weather front approaches Wednesday night into Thursday. Temperatures should moderate to seasonal levels on Wednesday, but the front itself will be lacking for moisture, so only a few localized, light showers are possible through far northern areas, especially near and north of the Quebec border. Once this boundary swings by Thursday night, slightly cooler, seasonable weather should finish up the week on Friday.

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Farm & Garden

Rainfall Forecast:
Morning showers likely from the Adirondacks and Rt. 2 north, covering 70 percent of the area, with amounts up to 0.10 inches. Scattered showers south to Rt. 4, covering 40 percent south, with localized amounts less than 0.10 inches, just spotty showers over the higher terrain south, with no significant amounts. Dry weather returns Tuesday, lasting through Friday south of the Adirondacks and Rt. 4. Late Wednesday, a few showers reach the St. Lawrence Valley, spreading east from the Adirondacks and Rt. 2 north Thursday into Thursday night, with localized, light amounts possible. Dry weather returns north on Friday.

Drying Conditions:
Fair to poor drying conditions today from the Adirondacks and Rt. 4 north, with scattered showers and minimum relative humidities near 75 percent. An isolated shower over the higher terrain south, with fair drying conditions, and minimum relative humidities near 60 percent. Drying conditions good on Tuesday, with minimum relative humidities near 50 percent. Good drying conditions Wednesday, with minimum relative humidities near 45 percent south, but 55 percent north, with a few afternoon showers in the St. Lawrence Valley. Fair to locally poor drying north Thursday, with a few showers, drying remaining good south. Good drying conditions Friday.

Frost:
No frost expected tonight, but some freezing temperatures are possible over the higher terrain north. Colder Tuesday night, with freezing temperatures and scattered frost outside the Champlain Basin. Not as cold Wednesday through Friday nights.

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Wind by Elevation

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Temperature by Elevation

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