Extended Forecast | Significant/Hazardous Weather | Recreational Forecast | Detailed Discussion | Farm & Garden | Wind by Elevation | Temperature by Elevation
Detailed Forecast
Tonight:
Rain showers beginning after midnight increasing from the north to the south. Mostly clear to the south. Lows in the 40s. Southwest wind 5 to 15 mph, gusts up to 20 mph in the Champlain Valley.
Saturday:
Becoming mostly sunny south. Morning clouds and a few localized showers in the Northeast Kingdom. Breezy. Highs in the 50s north, 60s south. Wind becoming northwest, increasing to 10 to 15 mph, gusting 20 to 30 mph.
Saturday Night:
Mainly clear, with some clouds increasing from the west late. Colder. Lows in the 30s, some upper 20s possible in the cooler mountain valleys.
Extended Forecast
Sunday:
Becoming mostly cloudy, with an increasing chance of showers from the southwest to the northeast. Highs in the low to mid 50s.
Sunday Night:
Widespread showers, snow showers possible mainly over higher terrain. Lows in the upper 30s to low 40s.
Monday, Indigenous Peoples Day:
Rain or showers diminishing from the southwest to northeast. Highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s.
Monday Night:
Chance of showers mainly north, with a few snow showers possible. Lows in the low to mid 30s, some upper 30s in the Champlain Valley.
Tuesday:
Chance of a scattered shower mainly north and west. Highs from the upper 40s to low 50s.
Tuesday Night:
Chance of rain showers turning over to snow showers. Lows in the 30s with a few upper 20s in the cold hollows. Wind gusts up to 25 mph in the Champlain Valley.
Wednesday:
Mostly cloudy north partly cloudy south. Scattered snow showers turning over to rain showers. Highs from the upper 40s to low 50s.
Significant/Hazardous Weather
None.
Recreational Forecast
Mountain Forecast:
The forecast for summits calls for clouds, possibly obscuring the higher summits, and some morning snow or rain showers changing to a few spotty rain showers, mainly northeast. Remaining chilly, as winds increase to moderate from the northwest, and temperatures hold the same, or even drop a few more degrees. Friday features some morning clouds northeast, then sunshine, moderate northwest winds, strong across the higher summits, and temperatures moderating several degrees, but still chilly. The weekend outlook starts with some clouds and a shower over the northern summits Saturday morning, giving way to periods of sun, and becoming sunny south. Strong northwest winds will drop temperatures several degrees. Sunday brings increasing and lowering clouds as rain develops southwest to northeast. Winds will turn to the south and increase to moderate, while temperatures moderate several degrees.
Wind At Lower Elevations:
Winds today increasing from the northwest 10 to 15 mph, gusting to 25 mph, with waves on the open waters of Lake Champlain building to 2 to 4 feet. For Thursday night, northwest winds 10 to 15 mph, gusting to 25 mph, decreasing after midnight, with waves on the open waters of Lake Champlain 1 to 3 feet. On Friday, winds northwest, turning to the southwest near 10 mph, with waves on the open waters of Lake Champlain 1 to 2 feet. The outlook for Saturday calls for winds from the northwest 10 to 25 mph, gusting 30 to 40 mph.
For more details on Lake Champlain, go to: https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BTV&product=REC&issuedby=BTV
Detailed Discussion
A typical cold season pattern has evolved over the past several days, one that we’ll see with varying frequency through next spring. The general set-up involves a pool of cold air and low pressure in the atmosphere above us, steering a northwest airflow of chilly, moist air near the Earth’s surface. Embedded in that airflow, we often find collections of clouds and showers, enhanced as they ride up and over the mountains, tending to increase over the higher terrain, and diminish in the valleys. This somewhat chaotic situation played out over the past 24 hours, as a strong disturbance in this airflow dropped southeast from Ottawa through NY and into VT yesterday afternoon and overnight, producing scattered to numerous showers in the St. Lawrence Valley and NY, even a stray rumble of thunder and some snow and ice pellets, spreading east through VT, and falling apart over NH. It was cold enough for a dusting over snow over the mountains above 3 thousand feet, still lingering this morning through the Presidential Range in NH. In the wake of this system, we’ve got our chilliest day of the autumn season so far. Gusty northwest winds, and clouds will limit thermometers to the 40s this afternoon, reaching the low 50s in the warmer valleys west and south. A minor disturbance north of Quebec City this morning may squeeze out an isolated shower or sprinkle through the Northeast Kingdom into the White Mountains, north through the Eastern Townships this afternoon. As the remnants of this system depart tonight, skies will gradually clear, especially west and south of I-89, with scattered frost possible, which is why the National Weather Service has issued Frost Advisories for the southern-most counties of VT, the Berkshires, west through eastern NY. Clouds will linger north and east, especially through the Northeast Kingdom, into the White Mountains north into the Eastern Townships, limiting the frost there. Meanwhile, the high pressure area to our west drops into the Mid-Atlantic by Friday morning, giving us partly sunny skies, and a moderation in temperatures to close out the week, climbing back into the 50s and low 60s. This briefly milder weather won’t last, as a cold front edges south Saturday, with showers developing Friday night into Saturday in northern areas, followed by more chilly weather Saturday night into Sunday. This particular pattern remains active, bringing our next episode of rain from southwest to northeast Sunday, continuing Sunday night, and diminishing Monday, the holiday of many names, from Thanksgiving in Canada, to Columbus and Indigenous Peoples Day in the US. Another period of chilly autumn weather settles in for much of next week.
Farm & Garden
Rainfall Forecast:
A spotty shower or a few sprinkles, mostly over the higher terrain northeast today, covering 20 percent of the area, with amounts less than 0.10 inches. No rain forecast for Friday, and through Saturday south. A good chance of showers in Quebec Friday night, scattered from the Adirondacks and Rt. 2 north late Friday night, tapering off Saturday, with light amounts. A rising chance of rain from south to north Sunday, becoming likely Sunday night, and diminishing Monday, with light to moderate amounts for much of the area.
Drying Conditions:
Fair to poor drying today in the north and over the higher terrain south, with a stray shower or sprinkle, and minimum relative humidities near 70 percent. Fair drying in southern valleys today, with minimum relative humidities close to 60 percent. Drying good Friday, with minimum relative humidities near 55 percent. Good drying continuing south Saturday, but fair to poor north with a chance of showers. Fair drying Sunday, becoming poor, as cold temperatures limit the drying process, and a rising chance of rain in the afternoon. Fair to poor drying Monday, as rain showers taper off.
Frost:
Periods of clouds should clear through areas west and south of I-89 tonight, though a bit of breeze will limit temperatures dropping. In wind-sheltered valleys however, resulting in localized frost. Farther northeast, clouds will keep readings mainly above freezing, though any clearing could result in patches of frost. Temperatures are expected to moderate Friday night, with colder air returning this weekend. Skies will be mainly clear Saturday evening, with some clouds late. Frost is a good possibility.
Wind by Elevation
| Wind Speeds | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Elevation | Today | Saturday | Sunday |
| 2000ft | NW>SW 15 to 25 mph | NW 40>25 mph | WNW 40>25 mph |
| 4000ft | NW>W 25 to 40 mph | NW 50>35 mph | WNW 50>35 mph |
| 6000ft | WNW 60 to 75 mph | NW 100>70 mph | WNW 100>70 mph |
Temperature by Elevation
| Temperature at Elevation | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Elevation | Today | Saturday | Sunday |
| 2000ft | 50 N/57 S | 47 N/57 S | 40 to 45 |
| 4000ft | 50 to 55 | 40s>30s | 30 to 40 |
| 6000ft | 40 to 45 | 40>30 | 30 to 35 |